Stock Market Outlook -- Week of March 21 2021

The stock market outlook is still showing a downtrend; confirmation of the new uptrend hasn't happened yet. "Whipsaw" effects are still the order of the day (false and/or delayed signals).

The divergence between prices near all time highs and a downtrend signal hasn't gone unnoticed (myself included). The questions are a good sign; readers aren't blindly following signals.

The purpose of this series is to show how rules can reduce the risk of loss over the year. Unfortunately, any rule or process that limits losses can also limit gains. and it appears that is playing out right now.

More commentary after the jump... Stock Market Outlook - Week of March 21 2021

Stock Market Outlook - March 14 2021

The stock market outlook remains in a downtrend to start the week, as we await confirmation of the new uptrend. The current price action is choppy at best, thanks to sector rotation, and that "whipsaw" effect will generate false signals and/or delay new ones.

Stimulus provided by the American Rescue Plan "should" give the stock market an extra boost, via increased spending or just outright investment in stocks.

More commentary after the jump... Stock Market Outlook - Week of March 07 2021

Stock Market Outlook - March 7 2021

The stock market outlook starts March in a downtrend, on the back of institutional selling.

All three signals are showing downtrends, but sell-offs over the past year have been fairly short (~3 weeks).

Risk-off is the name of the game right now, but that doesn't mean there are no opportunities for gains. Follow the money!

More commentary after the jump... Stock Market Outlook - Week of March 07 2021

Stock Market Outlook - February 28 2021

The stock market outlook remains in an uptrend.  Not because of "strength"...more just a lack of sufficient weakness, as only one signal confirmed a downtrend.

The ADX flipped Monday, price/volume action and Elliott Wave are mixed. Keep an eye on the 50-day moving average and the 3700 price level.

Interest rates on 10-year treasuries are the market catalyst right now, and are likely to kick off some sector rotation in the near future.

More commentary after the jump... Stock Market Outlook - Week of Februaruy 28 2021

Stock Market Outlook - Febuary 21 2021

The stock market outlook remains in an uptrend, with prices now near the lower bound of a former bullish price channel.

The ADX shows a really weak trend in place, but the other two signals are still showing uptrends for now.

The Gamestop hearings provided some entertainment last week, but the move in longer-term interest rates is more important.

More commentary after the jump... Stock Market Outlook - Week of Februaruy 21 2021

Stock Market Outlook - February 14 2021

The stock market outlook shows an uptrend, with prices near the upper bound of a former bullish price channel.

Still risk on...for now. By all typical valuation measures, stocks are extremely overvalued. Not too surprising...where else are you going to park your money these days?

Watch the $VIX; it's still elevated when compared to the last few years, but nearing the low point of the since the pandemic sell-off.

More commentary after the jump... Stock Market Outlook - Week of Februaruy 14 2021

Stock Market Outlook - February 7 2021

The stock market outlook shows an uptrend, as stocks fought back against recent bearishness.

All the signals are green again, but there is still cause for concern below the surface.

Keep watch, as prices take the stairs up and the elevator down.

More commentary after the jump... Stock Market Outlook - Week of Februaruy 7 2021