Stock Market Outlook - August 29 2021

The stock market outlook's uptrend rallies on, kicking this week off at all time highs.

2021-08-29-SPX Trendline Analysis - Daily

The Fed meeting came and went and earnings have been pretty good, so now we wait for trading volume to return from it's summer holiday.

More commentary after the jump...

Stock Market Outlook - Week of August 29 2021

Stock Market Outlook - August 22 2021

The stock market outlook uptrend continues for another week, but the underlying signals changed a bit.

The cause of last week's volatility was the Fed's discussion of tapering bond purchases. That price action could carry over to this week, as the Fed's chairman is scheduled to speak at the central-bank symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

Regardless of your view on the possible outcomes, let the trades come to you.

More commentary after the jump... Stock Market Outlook - Week of August 22 2021

Stock Market Outlook - August 15 2021

The stock market outlook uptrend remains in place this week, as the S&P500 grinds higher and hugs the upper bound of a price channel.

The CPI and PPI numbers, released last week, appear to show that price inflation is waning (transitory), while cost inflation is just getting started.

More commentary after the jump... Stock Market Outlook - Week of August 15 2021

Stock Market Outlook - August 08 2021

The stock market outlook uptrend remains in place this week, with the index basically in the same position as last week. Does it break out to the upside, or test support?

Q2 earnings are good so far, but expectations are weighing heavily on post-earnings price action.

Expect a lot of speculation in the coming weeks, leading up to the Fed meeting in Jackson Hole next month. We've had good conditions, relatively speaking, but they won't last forever, and we appear to be setting the stage for some stagflation (shades of 1973).

Investors can still profit, but asset class and sector selection are the keys to success.

More commentary after the jump... Stock Market Outlook - Week of August 08 2021

Stock Market Outlook - August 01 2021

The stock market outlook uptrend slide into August with sideways price action, which aligns with some of the weakness we discussed in last weeks post.

Earnings season looks good so far, although we're just starting to see post-COVID numbers creep into comparisons. That should make for interesting reports during Q3 and Q4 earnings seasons.

More commentary after the jump... Stock Market Outlook - Week of August 01 2021

Stock Market Outlook - July 25 2021

last week of July, but have we rebounded too quickly from last week's weakness?

There's some weakness showing up in the signals, but not enough to shift the outlook yet. One contrarian reason to remain cautious is investor expectations...long-term returns are through the roof!

More commentary after the jump... Stock Market Outlook - Week of July 25 2021

Stock Market Outlook - July 18 2021

The stock market outlook continues in an uptrend this week, but it's not without some headwinds.

More commentary after the jump...

More commentary after the jump... Stock Market Outlook - Week of July 11 2021

Stock Market Outlook - July 11 2021

The stock market outlook continues in an uptrend this week, even with a small spike in volatility.

Since the market is up almost 20% for the year, now is a good time to review your holdings, take profits, and right-sizing your position and portfolio sizes.

More commentary after the jump... Stock Market Outlook - Week of July 11 2021

Stock Market Outlook - July 04 2021

The stock market outlook remains in an uptrend to kick-off the first full week in July.

Employment was a mixed bag, which was exactly what was needed to keep the keep the liquidity party going.

A short trading week in the U.S., with markets closed on Monday in honor of Independence Day.

More commentary after the jump... Stock Market Outlook - Week of July 04 2021

Stock Market Outlook - June 27 2021

Thanks to a solid rally off the 50-day moving average, the stock market outlook begins this week in an uptrend.

Positive news on both the economic and political front (PMI, infrastructure deal) supported last week's gains. Credit spreads and margin-debt continue to signal a "risk-on", "buy the dip" mentality.

More commentary after the jump... Stock Market Outlook - Week of June 27 2021

Stock Market Outlook - June 20 2021

The stock market outlook uptrend switches to a downtrend to start the week of June 20th.

The ADX signal was the first to flip, followed by price/volume signal on Friday as the index broke through the 50-day moving average, on very high trading volume.

Touching the 50-day has been a buy the dip opportunity this year, but I'd want to see a couple of "higher lows" before doing so.

More commentary after the jump... Stock Market Outlook - Week of June 20 2021

Stock Market Outlook - June 13 2021

The stock market outlook uptrend remains in place to start the week of June 13th.

Inflation was the talk of the town last week, with consumer price indexes coming in hot. But so far, the bond market agrees with the Fed that the rise is transitory, as rates didn't react.

I'm assuming that the spike is transitory, but the absolute level will remain elevated for a while.

More commentary after the jump...Stock Market Outlook - Week of June 13 2021

Stock Market Outlook - June 06 2021

The stock market outlook shows an uptrend in place to start the week.

The May jobs report was a bit below expectations, but that's probably for the best. And we're seeing the value stocks outperform growth, as is typical for this stage of the recovery.

More commentary after the jump... Stock Market Outlook - Week of June 06 2021

Stock Market Outlook - May 30 2021

The stock market outlook shows an uptrend in place to start this week, with fairly flat price action for the S&P500.

A Short trading week in the U.S., with markets closed in observance of Memorial Day on Monday.

More commentary after the jump... Stock Market Outlook - Week of May 30 2021

Stock Market Outlook - May 23 2021

No change in the stock market outlook; an uptrend in place with the S&P basically in the same place it was last Sunday.

The U.S. economy continues to improve, while stocks largely ignored issues in other parts of the world.

Cryptocurrency made waves last week following news out of China. Just like stocks, the old saw "don't try to catch a falling knife" still applies.

More commentary after the jump... Stock Market Outlook - Week of May 23 2021

Stock Market Outlook - May 16 2021

Last week's price action made a mess of the stock market outlook signals, but an uptrend remains in place to start the week.

The lack of trading volume on upside days continues to indicate a buy-the-dip mentality. It’s a good sign that people are still willing to buy, even at these elevated valuations.

But that also means you need dips to buy, so practice good risk management. You never know which dip will be "transitory".

More commentary after the jump...Stock Market Outlook - Week of May 16 2021

Stock Market Outlook - Week of May 09 2021

The stock market outlook shows an uptrend in place to start this week.

Friday's jobs report didn't live up to expectations, but the markets rallied on the news, because it means interest rate hikes are a little further away than they were on Thursday.

More commentary after the jump... Stock Market Outlook - Week of May 09 2021

Stock Market Outlook - May 02 2021

The stock market outlook shows an uptrend in place to kick-off the month of May.

Another fairly flat week, and with trading volume remains below average, it’s been more a sign of profit taking than outright liquidation.

All things considered, the economy appears to be in pretty good shape, as are corporate earnings. So don't be surprised if the market's are still in buy-the-dip territory when another correction comes our way.

More commentary after the jump...Stock Market Outlook - Week of May 02 2021

Stock Market Outlook - April 25 2021

The stock market outlook continues to indicate an uptrend in place to start this week's trading action.

Volatility increased, since that's what we're calling 1% moves these days. All signals show bullish trends, but Elliott Wave is starting to show some cracks in the trend.

Tax increases are on the horizon (no surprise), but there are still plenty of fundamental reasons to be bullish in the near-term.

More commentary after the jump... Stock Market Outlook - Week of April 25 2021

Stock Market Outlook - April 18 2021

The stock market outlook shows an uptrend remains in place to start the week of April 18th.

All three signals (ADX, Price/Volume, and EW) remain green.

The economic backdrop (retails sales, earnings) support expectations for further gains in the stock market this quarter, but don't be surprised if we see some profit taking and/or sector rotation as investments hit overbought and oversold levels.

More commentary after the jump... Stock Market Outlook - Week of April 18 2021

Stock Market Outlook - April 11 2021

The stock market outlook shows an uptrend remains in place to start the week of April 11th.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 at all time highs, and volatility is dropping, which likely means the rally has more room to run.

More commentary after the jump... Stock Market Outlook - Week of April 11 2021

Stock Market Outlook - April 04 2021

The stock market outlook shows an uptrend in place to start the week of April 4th, with all three signals showing bullish price action.

More commentary after the jump... Stock Market Outlook - Week of April 04 2021

Stock Market Outlook - March 28 2021

The stock market outlook flipped after receiving confirmation of the new uptrend on Friday.  Better late than never, I guess.

The ADX remains bearish, but price/volume and Elliott Wave show an uptrend.

Not much in the way of economic news last week, but as of Friday's close, the S&P500 has risen ~81% from the market low on March 23, 2020! That's an amazing 1 year return!

More commentary after the jump... Stock Market Outlook - Week of March 28 2021

Stock Market Outlook -- Week of March 21 2021

The stock market outlook is still showing a downtrend; confirmation of the new uptrend hasn't happened yet. "Whipsaw" effects are still the order of the day (false and/or delayed signals).

The divergence between prices near all time highs and a downtrend signal hasn't gone unnoticed (myself included). The questions are a good sign; readers aren't blindly following signals.

The purpose of this series is to show how rules can reduce the risk of loss over the year. Unfortunately, any rule or process that limits losses can also limit gains. and it appears that is playing out right now.

More commentary after the jump... Stock Market Outlook - Week of March 21 2021

Stock Market Outlook - March 14 2021

The stock market outlook remains in a downtrend to start the week, as we await confirmation of the new uptrend. The current price action is choppy at best, thanks to sector rotation, and that "whipsaw" effect will generate false signals and/or delay new ones.

Stimulus provided by the American Rescue Plan "should" give the stock market an extra boost, via increased spending or just outright investment in stocks.

More commentary after the jump... Stock Market Outlook - Week of March 07 2021

Stock Market Outlook - March 7 2021

The stock market outlook starts March in a downtrend, on the back of institutional selling.

All three signals are showing downtrends, but sell-offs over the past year have been fairly short (~3 weeks).

Risk-off is the name of the game right now, but that doesn't mean there are no opportunities for gains. Follow the money!

More commentary after the jump... Stock Market Outlook - Week of March 07 2021

Stock Market Outlook - February 28 2021

The stock market outlook remains in an uptrend.  Not because of "strength"...more just a lack of sufficient weakness, as only one signal confirmed a downtrend.

The ADX flipped Monday, price/volume action and Elliott Wave are mixed. Keep an eye on the 50-day moving average and the 3700 price level.

Interest rates on 10-year treasuries are the market catalyst right now, and are likely to kick off some sector rotation in the near future.

More commentary after the jump... Stock Market Outlook - Week of Februaruy 28 2021

Stock Market Outlook - Febuary 21 2021

The stock market outlook remains in an uptrend, with prices now near the lower bound of a former bullish price channel.

The ADX shows a really weak trend in place, but the other two signals are still showing uptrends for now.

The Gamestop hearings provided some entertainment last week, but the move in longer-term interest rates is more important.

More commentary after the jump... Stock Market Outlook - Week of Februaruy 21 2021

Stock Market Outlook - February 14 2021

The stock market outlook shows an uptrend, with prices near the upper bound of a former bullish price channel.

Still risk on...for now. By all typical valuation measures, stocks are extremely overvalued. Not too surprising...where else are you going to park your money these days?

Watch the $VIX; it's still elevated when compared to the last few years, but nearing the low point of the since the pandemic sell-off.

More commentary after the jump... Stock Market Outlook - Week of Februaruy 14 2021

Stock Market Outlook - February 7 2021

The stock market outlook shows an uptrend, as stocks fought back against recent bearishness.

All the signals are green again, but there is still cause for concern below the surface.

Keep watch, as prices take the stairs up and the elevator down.

More commentary after the jump... Stock Market Outlook - Week of Februaruy 7 2021

Stock Market Outlook - January 31 2021

The stock market outlook still shows an uptrend, but there's bearish price action across the board.

Closing below the 50-day moving average is all it will take to switch the signal to a downtrend, so stay frosty.

The stock market has had a good run since November, so don't be shy about taking some money off the table (e.g. recover your initial investment). Keep your losses small no matter what. You can always buy back in if/when price action improves.

Much more commentary on Gamestop, WallStreetBets, and Retail traders after the jump...Stock Market Outlook - Week of January 31 2021

Stock Market Outlook - January 24 2021

The stock market outlook remains in an uptrend and recovered a bit of strength last week.

Good or bad, market prices are at historical extremes. Prices can higher, now is definitely NOT the time to be in love with your holdings (not that there is ever a good time for that).

More commentary after the jump... Stock Market Outlook - Week of January 24 2021

Stock Market Outlook - January 17 2021

The stock market outlook remains in an uptrend, albeit a weakening one.

The 3 signals we track remain bullish, but price action hasn't been the stuff of strong rallys.

Stock Market Outlook - Week of January 17 2021

Stock Market Outlook - January 10 2021

The stock market outlook remains in an uptrend; all three signals are in the green.

But price remains extended from the 200-day moving average (~14.5%), as it has for the past 9 weeks or so.

More commentary after the jump... Stock Market Outlook - Week of January 10 2021