Sunday, April 26, 2020

Weekend Stock Market Outlook - April 26 2020

The stock market outlook remains in an uptrend to start the week. The ADX and price/volume signals are bullish, while Elliott Wave still indicates a downtrend.

Earnings season is in full swing, with many big names reporting this week. Expect price volatility and limited forward guidance. The best you can do is look for companies with strong balance sheets and high demand for their products in a "stay at home" economy.

More commentary after the jump...Stock Market Outlook - Week of April 26 2020

Sunday, April 19, 2020

Weekend Stock Market Outlook - April 19 2020

The stock market outlook remains in an uptrend to start the week. The ADX and price/volume signals are bullish, while Elliott Wave is still bearish.

The S&P500 sits just above the 50-day moving average, and the current rally only has two distribution days. But take note of the negative divergence between the relative strength (RSI) and price over the past few days. Price targets for ending the current rally / c-wave are still in play: 2897, 2919, and 3175.

More commentary after the jump...Stock Market Outlook - Week of April 19 2020

Sunday, April 12, 2020

weekend Stock Market Outlook - April 12 2020

The stock market outlook switched to an uptrend last week!  The ADX directional indicators crossed over and price/volume was already in an uptrend.

The S&P500 has retraced 50% of the correction, and is in the final leg of the current rally, per Elliott Wave. There are several price targets for the end of the current wave between 2800 and 2950.

We saw some positive signs, with regard to infection curves, but ~10% of the U.S. workforce has applied for unemployment over the last 3 weeks. So it'll take time for consumer spending habits to recover.

Banks kick off Q1 earnings season this week. Keep an eye on forecasts for the year, or lack thereof.

More commentary after the jump...Stock Market Outlook - Week of April 12 2020

Sunday, April 5, 2020

Weekend Stock Market Outlook - April 5 2020

The stock market outlook remains in a downtrend; no change in the ADX or Elliott Wave. The price/volume indicator switched to an uptrend.

The S&P500 ($SPX) sits well below it's moving averages (~19 and 21% below the 50 and 200 day, respectively).

Prices retreated from the current downward trendline, but may have found support for a new uptrend at the 2450 level.  One of those trendlines will be violated soon, as both are really steep and daily price moves are still big.

According to most Elliott wave counts, the SPX is experiencing a short-term rally in a longer-term downtrend; meaning 2191 isn't the bottom. That said, we could rally to 2934 before heading back down! More commentary after the jump...Stock Market Outlook - Week of April 05 2020