Weekend Stock Market Outlook - March 29 2020

The stock market outlook remains in a downtrend; no change in the ADX, price/volume, or Elliott Wave.

The S&P500 sits ~16% below the 50 and 200 day moving average. The index started a potential rally on Tuesday, so watch for a follow-through this week. Be cautious though, as the first rally after an extreme sell-off usually fails.

From an economic standpoint, last week was extraordinary and U.S. stocks saw their best week in 11 years. Before we get carried away, we're about 25% below the February peak, and stock prices are basically "even" from a valuation perspective.

Hats off and a big thank you to the brave men and women putting their health at risk in essential positions to keep the rest of us safe and healthy during this crisis.

More commentary after the jump...Stock Market Outlook - Week of March 29 2020

Weekend Stock Market Outlook - March 22 2020

Carbon copy of last week; the stock market outlook remains in a downtrend; no change in the ADX, price/volume, or Elliott Wave.

The S&P has retraced all the gains from 2019.  There are some former lows near 2100 and 2000 that could provide support.  Otherwise, the 2016 low at 1810 is next major level.

While I personally don't think the selling is over just yet, there is and will be opportunity to purchase great companies at a discount soon.

The news will sound dire, social media will be worse, so practice social distancing from those things too. 

For those of you working in our hospitals, urgent care centers, doctor's offices, thank you.

For those of you working in our grocery stores, restaurants, and food supply chains, thank you.

More commentary after the jump...Stock Market Outlook - Week of March 08 2020

Weekend Stock Market Outlook - March 15 2020

The stock market outlook remains in a downtrend; no change in the ADX, price/volume, or Elliott Wave.  Uncertainty still rules the day, and will continue to do so for the next few weeks at a minimum.

The S&P500 ($SPX) shows massive price movement and high trading volumes.  The volatility reminds me of the late 2000s, but it's definitely not the same. 9% price moves are just crazy, not to mention a week straight of 5% or greater moves...in an index of 500 companies!

And as if we needed more black swans flying around, OPEC and Russia decided to enter a price war over oil.

More commentary after the jump...Stock Market Outlook - Week of March 08 2020

Weekend Stock Market Outlook - March 08 2020

The stock market outlook starts off in a downtrend after another wild week of trading.  The ADX, price/volume, and OEW all indicate a downtrend.

The S&P tried to retake the 200-day moving average last week, ending two trading days above that level.  In each case, selling returned and forced prices lower.  Looking that the new OEW labeling, this phase of the downtrend could find support 2790-2750, give or take.

While volatility in the stock market is expected, it's the volatility in the bond market that has some investors spooked. If you have any bond funds, they've probably done quite well this year and will likely continue to do so until the crisis subsides.

More commentary after the jump...Stock Market Outlook - Week of March 08 2020

Weekend Stock Market Outlook - March 01 2020

After a brutal sell-off, the stock market outlook starts this week in a downtrend. The outlook switched to a downtrend on Monday after the S&P opened below it's 50-day moving average.

The S&P currently sits below the 200-day moving average, and broke all the trendlines we had been following. Price appears to have found support at the October low. That's a 100% retracement of the 2019 Q4 advanced, meaning the market gave back all that it gained since October of last year.

Don't panic; prepare. Jim Cramer likened the current situation (healthcare-wise) to the time before measles had a vaccine. I think that's a good comparison. They'll be some bumps along the way, but we'll get through it.

More commentary after the jump...Stock Market Outlook - Week of March 01 2020