Stock Market Outlook - August 29 2021

The stock market outlook's uptrend rallies on, kicking this week off at all time highs.

2021-08-29-SPX Trendline Analysis - Daily

The Fed meeting came and went and earnings have been pretty good, so now we wait for trading volume to return from it's summer holiday.

More commentary after the jump...

Stock Market Outlook - Week of August 29 2021

Stock Market Outlook - August 22 2021

The stock market outlook uptrend continues for another week, but the underlying signals changed a bit.

The cause of last week's volatility was the Fed's discussion of tapering bond purchases. That price action could carry over to this week, as the Fed's chairman is scheduled to speak at the central-bank symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

Regardless of your view on the possible outcomes, let the trades come to you.

More commentary after the jump... Stock Market Outlook - Week of August 22 2021

Stock Market Outlook - August 15 2021

The stock market outlook uptrend remains in place this week, as the S&P500 grinds higher and hugs the upper bound of a price channel.

The CPI and PPI numbers, released last week, appear to show that price inflation is waning (transitory), while cost inflation is just getting started.

More commentary after the jump... Stock Market Outlook - Week of August 15 2021

Stock Market Outlook - August 08 2021

The stock market outlook uptrend remains in place this week, with the index basically in the same position as last week. Does it break out to the upside, or test support?

Q2 earnings are good so far, but expectations are weighing heavily on post-earnings price action.

Expect a lot of speculation in the coming weeks, leading up to the Fed meeting in Jackson Hole next month. We've had good conditions, relatively speaking, but they won't last forever, and we appear to be setting the stage for some stagflation (shades of 1973).

Investors can still profit, but asset class and sector selection are the keys to success.

More commentary after the jump... Stock Market Outlook - Week of August 08 2021

Stock Market Outlook - August 01 2021

The stock market outlook uptrend slide into August with sideways price action, which aligns with some of the weakness we discussed in last weeks post.

Earnings season looks good so far, although we're just starting to see post-COVID numbers creep into comparisons. That should make for interesting reports during Q3 and Q4 earnings seasons.

More commentary after the jump... Stock Market Outlook - Week of August 01 2021

Stock Market Outlook - July 25 2021

last week of July, but have we rebounded too quickly from last week's weakness?

There's some weakness showing up in the signals, but not enough to shift the outlook yet. One contrarian reason to remain cautious is investor expectations...long-term returns are through the roof!

More commentary after the jump... Stock Market Outlook - Week of July 25 2021

Stock Market Outlook - July 18 2021

The stock market outlook continues in an uptrend this week, but it's not without some headwinds.

More commentary after the jump...

More commentary after the jump... Stock Market Outlook - Week of July 11 2021

Stock Market Outlook - July 11 2021

The stock market outlook continues in an uptrend this week, even with a small spike in volatility.

Since the market is up almost 20% for the year, now is a good time to review your holdings, take profits, and right-sizing your position and portfolio sizes.

More commentary after the jump... Stock Market Outlook - Week of July 11 2021

Stock Market Outlook - July 04 2021

The stock market outlook remains in an uptrend to kick-off the first full week in July.

Employment was a mixed bag, which was exactly what was needed to keep the keep the liquidity party going.

A short trading week in the U.S., with markets closed on Monday in honor of Independence Day.

More commentary after the jump... Stock Market Outlook - Week of July 04 2021

Stock Market Outlook - June 27 2021

Thanks to a solid rally off the 50-day moving average, the stock market outlook begins this week in an uptrend.

Positive news on both the economic and political front (PMI, infrastructure deal) supported last week's gains. Credit spreads and margin-debt continue to signal a "risk-on", "buy the dip" mentality.

More commentary after the jump... Stock Market Outlook - Week of June 27 2021

Stock Market Outlook - June 20 2021

The stock market outlook uptrend switches to a downtrend to start the week of June 20th.

The ADX signal was the first to flip, followed by price/volume signal on Friday as the index broke through the 50-day moving average, on very high trading volume.

Touching the 50-day has been a buy the dip opportunity this year, but I'd want to see a couple of "higher lows" before doing so.

More commentary after the jump... Stock Market Outlook - Week of June 20 2021

Stock Market Outlook - June 13 2021

The stock market outlook uptrend remains in place to start the week of June 13th.

Inflation was the talk of the town last week, with consumer price indexes coming in hot. But so far, the bond market agrees with the Fed that the rise is transitory, as rates didn't react.

I'm assuming that the spike is transitory, but the absolute level will remain elevated for a while.

More commentary after the jump...Stock Market Outlook - Week of June 13 2021

Stock Market Outlook - June 06 2021

The stock market outlook shows an uptrend in place to start the week.

The May jobs report was a bit below expectations, but that's probably for the best. And we're seeing the value stocks outperform growth, as is typical for this stage of the recovery.

More commentary after the jump... Stock Market Outlook - Week of June 06 2021

Stock Market Outlook - May 30 2021

The stock market outlook shows an uptrend in place to start this week, with fairly flat price action for the S&P500.

A Short trading week in the U.S., with markets closed in observance of Memorial Day on Monday.

More commentary after the jump... Stock Market Outlook - Week of May 30 2021

Stock Market Outlook - May 23 2021

No change in the stock market outlook; an uptrend in place with the S&P basically in the same place it was last Sunday.

The U.S. economy continues to improve, while stocks largely ignored issues in other parts of the world.

Cryptocurrency made waves last week following news out of China. Just like stocks, the old saw "don't try to catch a falling knife" still applies.

More commentary after the jump... Stock Market Outlook - Week of May 23 2021

Stock Market Outlook - May 16 2021

Last week's price action made a mess of the stock market outlook signals, but an uptrend remains in place to start the week.

The lack of trading volume on upside days continues to indicate a buy-the-dip mentality. It’s a good sign that people are still willing to buy, even at these elevated valuations.

But that also means you need dips to buy, so practice good risk management. You never know which dip will be "transitory".

More commentary after the jump...Stock Market Outlook - Week of May 16 2021

Stock Market Outlook - Week of May 09 2021

The stock market outlook shows an uptrend in place to start this week.

Friday's jobs report didn't live up to expectations, but the markets rallied on the news, because it means interest rate hikes are a little further away than they were on Thursday.

More commentary after the jump... Stock Market Outlook - Week of May 09 2021

Stock Market Outlook - May 02 2021

The stock market outlook shows an uptrend in place to kick-off the month of May.

Another fairly flat week, and with trading volume remains below average, it’s been more a sign of profit taking than outright liquidation.

All things considered, the economy appears to be in pretty good shape, as are corporate earnings. So don't be surprised if the market's are still in buy-the-dip territory when another correction comes our way.

More commentary after the jump...Stock Market Outlook - Week of May 02 2021

Stock Market Outlook - April 25 2021

The stock market outlook continues to indicate an uptrend in place to start this week's trading action.

Volatility increased, since that's what we're calling 1% moves these days. All signals show bullish trends, but Elliott Wave is starting to show some cracks in the trend.

Tax increases are on the horizon (no surprise), but there are still plenty of fundamental reasons to be bullish in the near-term.

More commentary after the jump... Stock Market Outlook - Week of April 25 2021

Stock Market Outlook - April 18 2021

The stock market outlook shows an uptrend remains in place to start the week of April 18th.

All three signals (ADX, Price/Volume, and EW) remain green.

The economic backdrop (retails sales, earnings) support expectations for further gains in the stock market this quarter, but don't be surprised if we see some profit taking and/or sector rotation as investments hit overbought and oversold levels.

More commentary after the jump... Stock Market Outlook - Week of April 18 2021