Sunday, June 24, 2018

Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook For The Week of
June 24th = Uptrend

INDICATORS

20/50 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY

As mentioned in last Sunday's outlook, the S&P500 headed lower last week. Nothing crazy, but there are some new price levels to watch.

Most of the indexes are remain above their 20/50-day moving averages. The Dow Jones continues to underperform ($INDU), and now sits below the 20 AND 50 day. The S&P500 ended the week resting directly on its 20 day.

Price charts for $SPX,$COMPQ,$INDU,$NYA,$RUT,$VIX,$TNX,$USD,$CRB,$GOLD

2018-06-24-US Stock Market Averages

No change in the price/volume action last week. And OEW remains in an uptrend.

Now let's take a closer look at the S&P ($SPX). After rising in early June, the ADX line is heading lower again. The ADX never rose above 20, so the uptrend wasn't/isn't very strong. Last week saw the bearish directional indicator (DI-) cross above the bullish directional indicator (DI+), so now we've got bearish price action on top of that weakening trend. Time to dust off those momentum indicators!

2018-06-24 - $SPX Technical Analysis

2018-06-17 - SPX Technical Analysis

I mentioned the likelihood of sideways and even falling price action last week, given that we ran into the upper channel and summer vacation season (i.e. reduced trading activity) was about to start. You may have also noticed that the mid-March high (2786.57) is almost exactly where the latest rally topped out on June 12 (2786.85). We'll need to see a decisive move above 2787 to know whether this uptrend can continue.

Short-term, there seems to be some support around 2740, otherwise look to the 50-day and lower channel (~1.5% and 2% below the current price, respectively). And lets hope this isn't a big sideways channel between the February low (2581) and the March high (2787).

If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. If you don't find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro. Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.



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Sunday, June 17, 2018

Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook For The Week of
June 17th = Uptrend

INDICATORS

20/50 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY

A fairly quiet week for the markets, price-wise; it was anything but quiet when it came to the news. Every day there was something new: G7 fallout, a summit with North Korea, and new tariffs on Chinese goods. Any one of these could have soured investors, yet prices were resilient.

All the indexes are remain above their 20/50-day moving averages. The Dow Jones ($INDU) briefly touched the 20 on Friday, but recovered before the close.

Price charts for $SPX,$COMPQ,$INDU,$NYA,$RUT,$VIX,$TNX,$USD,$CRB,$GOLD

2018-06-17-US Stock Market Averages

The markets saw some distribution last week, but that likely has more to do with options expiration than any market weakness. For now, the count remains within acceptable limits, so no change in this signal.

OEW remains in an uptrend, and Tony is reiterating his call for 3,000 on the S&P.

Now that those signals are out of the way, let's take a closer look at the S&P ($SPX).

2018-06-17 - $SPX Technical Analysis

2018-06-17 - SPX Technical Analysis

No change in the ADX this week. Near term, it looks like the S&P may take a breather again (sideways or even slightly downward price action), as we bounced off the upper price channel last week. As far as support, the 50-day moving average sits ~2% below the current price, while the lower channel is ~3% away.

Not many new break-outs last week. Many of the stocks I watch are digesting their recent run-ups, so that's not too surprising. We may have to wait a few weeks to see which sectors power the uptrend further, as we just ran into that resistance at the upper channel and the summer travel season kicks off in two weeks with the 4th of July holiday in the U.S.

If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. If you don't find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro. Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.



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Sunday, June 10, 2018

Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook For The Week of
June 10th = Uptrend

INDICATORS

20/50 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY

Some solid gains for U.S. equities puts the markets in full-on uptrend mode to start this week.

All the indexes are above their 20/50-day moving averages.

Price charts for $SPX,$COMPQ,$INDU,$NYA,$RUT,$VIX,$TNX,$USD,$CRB,$GOLD

2018-06-10-US Stock Market Averages

We experienced some accumulation last week (higher volume up days). Now that we're entered June, I doubt we'll see an increase in overall trading volume until the summer is over. Combined with the lack of recent distribution, I feel confident moving this signal from mixed to uptrend this week.

Tony's back at the controls this week, and as expected OEW remains in an uptrend.

Now that those signals are out of the way, let's take a look at the ADX again.

2018-06-10- $SPX Technical Analysis

2018-06-10- SPX Technical Analysis

With the DI+ making a clear crossover of the DI-, the ADX inflection last week appears to be signaling a new entry point. Lets hope this is August 2017 and not May 2014, but plan and prepare for either. The daily chart also shows the beginnings of a new channel for the S&P500; we're still a few points away from the potential upper bound.

Several recent break-outs in my growth stock watch list have reached profit taking zones (20% gains), which is a welcome site. Income stocks continue to be a victim of their own success, as their prices are just too high to justify an investment at this point.

If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. If you don't find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro. Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.



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Sunday, June 3, 2018

Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook For The Week of
June 3rd = Uptrend

INDICATORS

20/50 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
Price & Volume Action: Mixed
Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY

Stocks spent another week moving sideways to close out the month of May...sell in may and go away indeed. No change in the overall signal and 2 out of 3 signals still in uptrend.

The moving average signal remains in an uptrend, although the Dow Jones did close below its 20-day moving average.

Price charts for $SPX,$COMPQ,$INDU,$NYA,$RUT,$VIX,$TNX,$USD,$CRB,$GOLD

2018-06-03-US Stock Market Averages

Trading volume was below average, and we added two distribution days last week, so the signal remains mixed.

Tony will be back this week, and I'm still assuming OEW's uptrend remains in place.

The ADX fell even further and starts this week around 10, with the DI+ and DI- on equal footing. We've been here a few times recently: May 2014, April 2015, August 2017. In each case, we saw some pretty major moves within 5 months or so (2014 and 2015 were to the downside, 2017 was to the upside). Momentum indicators remain the tool of the day, for now.

2018-06-03- $SPX Technical Analysis

2018-06-03 - SPX Technical Analysis

And last but not least, the S&P500 found support at the long-term trendline.

2018-06-03 - $SPX Technical Analysis

2018-06-03 - SPX Technical Analysis

The U.S. markets are closed tomorrow, in observance of Memorial Day, our time to remember the people who died while serving our country in the armed forces.



If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. If you don't find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro. Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.



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