Sunday, April 29, 2018

Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook For The Week of
April 29th = Downtrend

INDICATORS

20/50 Day Moving Averages: Downtrend
Price & Volume Action: Mixed
Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Downtrend

COMMENTARY

Market prices didn't make much progress last week, so the environment remains bearish for new positions (i.e. downtrend).

Only the Russell 2000 is above the 50-day moving average.

Price charts for $SPX,$COMPQ,$INDU,$NYA,$RUT,$VIX,$TNX,$USD,$CRB,$GOLD

2018-04-29-US Stock Market Averages

Price and volume action remains mixed. Growth stocks are having a hard time staying above technical resistance levels (i.e. buy points in price patterns such as flat bases), even though Q1 earnings have been strong.

OEW continues to show a medium term downtrend. The long-term bull market remains in place, with the following caveat:

    We see no reason to be concerned unless the SPX loses 2500.

Coincidentally, that's a handful of points below the floor of the descending triangle pattern we've been tracking recently. The upper trendline now rests at ~2,680; the floor remains at 2,581. The ADX indicator hasn't changed much in April (still bearish), as the S&P works its way through the descending triangle price pattern.

2018-04-29 - $SPX Technical Analysis

2018-04-29 - SPX Technical Analysis

The longer term price channel also remains intact, as we saw a bounce off the lower trendline last week. But the week ended with a loss, and trading volumes were higher than last week.

2018-04-29 - $SPX Technical Analysis

2018-04-29 - SPX Technical Analysis

Earnings reports, for the most part, are crushing expectations. You'd think stock prices would react in kind, blasting past resistance levels and other technical sticking points. You'd be wrong. Lot's of after hours/pre-market gap ups, only to be sold off during the trading day.

For example, Caterpillar (CAT) jumped ~5% after a massive earnings beat, only reverse course during Tuesday trading to close with a 6% loss! Even technology names weren't immune. Amazon (AMZN) and Intel (INTC) rose 7% and 8% in after-hours trading, respectively, after releasing strong quarterly results. The next day, Amazon shed some of that gain, closing up ~4%, while Intel ended with 0.6% loss! Not exactly a sign of institutional support...

Such is life in a downtrend...which is why it pays to be cautious and avoid initiating new positions until market conditions improve.




If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. If you don't find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro. Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.




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Sunday, April 22, 2018

Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook For The Week of
April 22nd = Downtrend

INDICATORS

20/50 Day Moving Averages: Downtrend
Price & Volume Action: Mixed
Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Downtrend

COMMENTARY

We kick things off with a downtrend still in place, though there were some positive developments last week.

Price charts for $SPX,$COMPQ,$INDU,$NYA,$RUT,$VIX,$TNX,$USD,$CRB,$GOLD

2018-04-22-US Stock Market Averages

All the indexes were above their 50-day moving averages by Wednesday, only to relinquish that level by Friday's close. Again, only the Russell 2000 is in positive territory using this indicator. So we start the week in downtrend territory, with the prospect of an uptrend signal just ahead.

Price and volume action really is mixed. On the positive side, the markets rose above their 50-day moving average, and it has been 11 weeks since the downtrend started. This means that stocks have had a chance to form good price patterns and should be ready to breakout.

On the negative side, only 4 weeks have past since the second major sell-off in the latest downtrend, so some price patterns likely need another two weeks before their ready to go. Also, all of the higher than average trading volume has occurred when prices have fallen.

Friday's price action put OEW back in downtrend mode, removing the possibility that the latest moves were the beginning of a new rally.

2018-04-22- $SPX Technical Analysis

2018-04-22- SPX Technical Analysis

The ADX indicator is unchanged from last week; the DI- remains higher than the DI+ (bearish), and the ADX line is flat.

S&P prices tested the upper trendline of the descending triangle, but were unable to breakthrough. For comparison, the Dow Jones broke through the upper trend line of its own descending triangle last week; a good sign if you were trading that index.

Right now, the upper trendline sits just above 2,700, while the patterns floor remains at 2,581. At this point, the S&P would have to violate the longer-term trend (the rising price channel) in order to reach the floor; that lower trendline sits at ~2,600.

2018-04-22- $SPX Technical Analysis

2018-04-22- SPX Technical Analysis

Earnings season has started up again and we've grown accustom to companies crushing analyst expectations. Anything less is now cause for panic sell-offs, so it's a good time to review watch lists AND current holdings.

For growth stocks, I'm on the lookout for double-bottom price patterns. For income stocks, make sure the payout ratios remain within acceptable limits (i.e. less than 60%).




If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. If you don't find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro. Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.




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Sunday, April 15, 2018

Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook For The Week of
April 15th = Downtrend

INDICATORS

20/50 Day Moving Averages: Downtrend
Price & Volume Action: Downtrend
Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Downtrend

COMMENTARY

U.S. markets contended with the threat of an escalation in the Syrian War last week. As of Saturday, threats of missile strikes turned into actual missile strikes. We'll see how markets respond on Monday. For now, we're still in a downtrend, but price action did improve last week.

For now, all the indexes regained their 20-day moving averages, but most are below their 50 day moving averages. The only exception is the Russell 2000, which begins the week above it's 50 day moving average.

Price charts for $SPX,$COMPQ,$INDU,$NYA,$RUT,$VIX,$TNX,$USD,$CRB,$GOLD

2018-04-15-US Stock Market Averages

Price and volume action remains downtrend territory. We didn't add any distribution days to the count, but trading volume declined as prices rose (not a good sign).

OEW analysis continues to indicate that the current downtrend may have bottomed, but price action remains choppy and hasn't given the all clear yet.

From a technical standpoint, the S&P starts this week on better footing than last week. The S&P found support at the bottom of the descending triangle pattern, and is now looking to cross the 50-day moving average.

2018-04-15 - $SPX Technical Analysis

2018-04-15- SPX Technical Analysis

The pattern's floor remains at 2581; the upper trendline now sits at 2725, give or take. The ADX indicator is basically unchanged from last week; the DI- remains higher than the DI+ (bearish), and the ADX line is flat.

2018-04-15 - $SPX Technical Analysis

2018-04-15- SPX Technical Analysis

Moving to the weekly view, the S&P500 bounced off the price channels lower trendline during the week.




If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. If you don't find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro. Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.




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Sunday, April 8, 2018

Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook For The Week of
April 8th = Downtrend

INDICATORS

20/50 Day Moving Averages: Downtrend
Price & Volume Action: Downtrend
Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Downtrend

COMMENTARY

Last week's market agitator came in the form of tit-for-tat tariff announcements between the U.S. and China. What this week has in store is anyone's guess.

All the indexes remain below their 20 and 50 day moving averages. Prices continue to find support near the 200 day moving average, which is a good sign.

Price charts for $SPX,$COMPQ,$INDU,$NYA,$RUT,$VIX,$TNX,$USD,$CRB,$GOLD

2018-04-08-US Stock Market Averages

Price and volume action remains downtrend territory. A look at the weekly chart (below) shows higher trading volume on down weeks versus up weeks since the start of 2018; definitely a sign of price weakness and institutional selling.

OEW analysis indicates that the current downtrend may have bottomed, but we still need to see an confirmation of the uptrend before changing the signal.

Revisiting the technical analysis from last week, in the daily view we can see a descending triangle pattern. This pattern is usually bearish, but let the price dictate your actions.

2018-04-08 - $SPX Technical Analysis

2018-04-08- SPX Technical Analysis

The pattern's floor is the 2581.00 price level; watch for a high volume close below that level. Last Monday, prices actually dipped below 2581, but recovered by the end of the day to close at 2158.88 (whoa, that was close)! Alternatively, a close above the upper trendline (~2740 to start the week) would be very bullish.

The ADX indicator is basically unchanged from last week; the DI- remains higher than the DI+ (bearish), and the ADX line is flat.

2018-04-08 - $SPX Technical Analysis

2018-04-08- SPX Technical Analysis

Moving to the weekly view, the S&P500 crossed below the price channels lower trendline during the week. Thanks to a late-date on Friday, price closed above the lower channel, so the current bull market lives to see another day.




If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. If you don't find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro. Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.




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Sunday, April 1, 2018

Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook For The Week of
April 1st = Downtrend

INDICATORS

20/50 Day Moving Averages: Downtrend
Price & Volume Action: Downtrend
Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Downtrend

COMMENTARY

No April Fools joke here; data privacy continued to roil the markets last week. While there was some positive movement on Monday and Friday, those gains weren't enough to change the outlook heading into this week.

Price charts for $SPX,$COMPQ,$INDU,$NYA,$RUT,$VIX,$TNX,$USD,$CRB,$GOLD

2018-04-01-US Stock Market Averages

All the indexes remain below their 20 and 50 day moving averages to start the first week of April. The 200 day moving average provided some technical support, but the indexes have more work to do to recover from recent price declines.

Price and volume action remains downtrend territory as well. Last week's gains came on lower trading volume, relative to the losing days

No update from OEW this week; the downtrend signal remains in place.

2018-04-01 - $SPX Technical Analysis

2018-04-01- SPX Technical Analysis

ADX price action moderated a little bit over the past week. The DI- is still higher than DI+ (downtrend), but the ADX isn't rising as sharply (weakening).

2018-04-01 - $SPX Technical Analysis

2018-04-01- SPX Technical Analysis

Taking a longer-term look, you can see the S&P500 break the upper channel of a long term trend as we started 2018. This is typically a sell signal, or at the very least an indication that it's time to take some profits. True to form, the markets sold off, and are now testing the lower channel. On the plus side, the index found support at the lower level 3 times this year, which indicates strong support at those prices. On the downside, last week's test came on lower than average volume. Think of this as another data point on the current market conditions as you consider your investing strategy.

Best wishes to you on this Easter weekend.




If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. If you don't find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro. Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.




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