Sunday, January 21, 2018

Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook For The Week of
January 21st = Uptrend

INDICATORS

20/50 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY

U.S. markets continue their winning ways, as the uptrend moves into the 4th week of trading in 2018. Every week, it seems like there is a new crisis for the market to overcome. This week we're dealing a government shutdown, as members of the U.S. legislator could not come to terms on a funding bill. For reference, the last time we had a shutdown was back in October 2013. The markets dropped a little less than 5%, and then immediately recovered. Buy the dip indeed.

All the market indexes remain above their 20 and 50 day moving averages. We have to go all the way back to late August to see the last time the S&P500 was near its 50-day moving average! Now that's a rally.

$INDU,$NYA,$SPX,$USD,$COMPQ,$CRB,$RUT,$GOLD

2018-01-21-US Stock Market Averages

Price and volume action remains positive, though few of the recent breakouts had the trading volume needed to instill confidence. Unfortunately, that's usually the case with later stage bases. All the more reason to make sure you use well defined sell rules.

OEW uptrend remains in place.

Back in 2016, Tony's target for this uptrend (using the S&P500) was 3,000 to 3,600. At that time, the S&P was trading around 2,100. I was skeptical...that was a ~50% move to the upside, and I was expecting a major correction. Now that we're less than 10% from the lower end of that target, it's looking like one hell of a call!

But that's why I use an investing process and money management. In this case, I made money even though I was wrong!


If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. If you don't find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro. Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.




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Sunday, January 14, 2018

Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook For The Week of
January 14th = Uptrend

INDICATORS

20/50 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY

U.S. markets continue their uptrend into the third week of 2018.

All the market indexes remain above their 20 and 50 day moving averages.

$INDU,$NYA,$SPX,$USD,$COMPQ,$CRB,$RUT,$GOLD

2018-01-14-US Stock Market Averages

Price and volume action remains positive, so the uptrend signal remains in place. A few stocks even broke out of 6-week bases last week! On the downside, several leaders are in late stage bases (i.e. their trying to breakout successfully for the 3rd or 4th time).

Tony returns after a few week hiatus, and the OEW uptrend remains in place.

I received a few emails last week, wondering why I was so down on investing in stocks given that we are in an uptrend. Quite the opposite, I'm really positive on stocks; it's just hard to find stocks that meet my growth investing or income investing criteria.

My concern was the typical investor reaction to scarcity. When investing opportunities are in short supply, investors tend to get impatient, and "adjust" their criteria (increasing the risk of loss) so that there are more opportunities, rather than waiting patiently for conditions to improve.


If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. If you don't find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro. Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.




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Sunday, January 7, 2018

Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook For The Week of
January 7th = Uptrend

INDICATORS

20/50 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY

U.S. markets had a great start to the new year, and continue their uptrend into the second week of 2018.

All the market indexes remain above their 20 and 50 day moving averages.

$INDU,$NYA,$SPX,$USD,$COMPQ,$CRB,$RUT,$GOLD

2018-01-07-US Stock Market Averages

No change in the price and volume action, which still indicates an uptrend. A few stocks continue to work through short bases, but overall, proper set-ups for growth stocks are hard to find and and income stocks remain overvalued.

Tony hopes to be back soon. In the meantime, he's updated a few charts, and OEW remains in an uptrend.

Believe it or not, this is a difficult time to be an investor. With most stocks on the rise, it can be hard to stick to rule based investing. Many stocks sit on your watch list and don't meet your criteria, and then you watch the price continue to rise regardless. So investors take more risks because they fear missing out; risks like increasing position size, buying without proper bases, overlooking poor fundamentals, taking out a mortgage to buy bitcoin, etc.

Stay the course. Your rules are meant to protect your money...it's "safe" investing after all. To that end, when risks are higher, I decrease my planned position sizes to compensate (by lowering the amount of risk per trade). Once we have a proper correction, I expect to see some good entry conditions, at which point I'll consider readjusting my position sizes.


If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro. Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.




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Sunday, December 31, 2017

Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook For The Week of
December 31st = Uptrend

INDICATORS

20/50 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: n/a

COMMENTARY

We'll kick off 2018 with a uptrend in the U.S. markets, as they are closed Monday for New Year's Day. Just like last week, trading resumes on Tuesday (Jan 2).

All the market indexes remain above their 20 and 50 day moving averages to start 2018.

$INDU,$NYA,$SPX,$USD,$COMPQ,$CRB,$RUT,$GOLD

2017-12-31-US Stock Market Averages

No change in the price and volume action to begin 2018. I'm looking forward to January and February, now that some leading stocks are mid-way through base building activities.

We're still waiting for Tony and OEW to get back in the swing of things, so it may be a few more weeks before that signal comes back on line.

Now that 2017 is over, it's a great time to review your trades and make adjustments for 2018. I'll be doing the same for the weekly market outlook, so keep an eye out for the 2017 performance review.

Happy New Year to your and yours; here's to a profitable 2018!


If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro. Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.




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Sunday, December 24, 2017

Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook For The Week of
December 24th = Uptrend

INDICATORS

20/50 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: n/a

COMMENTARY

The current rally continues into the end of 2017. U.S. markets are closed on Monday for the Christmas holiday, with trading set to resume on Tuesday. Passage of a new tax plan didn't move the markets last week, mainly because opinions outnumber facts with regard to the impact.

All the market indexes remain above their 20 and 50 day moving averages to start the last week of 2017.

$INDU,$NYA,$SPX,$USD,$COMPQ,$CRB,$RUT,$GOLD

2017-11-24-US Stock Market Averages

No change in the price and volume signal this week (no surprise). Leading stocks continue to be extended (a bad thing), or are working on new bases (a good thing).

Hopefully Tony and OEW will be back in action to start the new year.

Wishing all of you a Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays!


If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro. Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.




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Sunday, December 17, 2017

Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook For The Week of
December 17th = Uptrend

INDICATORS

20/50 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: n/a

COMMENTARY

The current rally rolls on, with Friday's rise overcoming some mid-week price declines.

All the market indexes start the week above their 20 and 50 day moving averages, per the norm.

$INDU,$NYA,$SPX,$USD,$COMPQ,$CRB,$RUT,$GOLD

2017-11-17-US Stock Market Averages

No change in the price and volume action last week either. Despite all of the noise generated by the tax plan, its approval didn't cause breakouts for high quality stocks. There were breakouts, just not from leaders. This price action aligns with the fact that we haven't had enough downtime for leading stocks to form proper base patterns. On the plus side, you're probably sitting on some pretty large gains as this rally continues.

Best wishes to Tony at OEW on a speedy recovery.


If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro. Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.




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Sunday, December 10, 2017

Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook For The Week of
December 10th = Uptrend

INDICATORS

20/50 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY

The weekly outlook is back after a one week hiatus. A thank you to all my readers for their well wishes. We ran into some selling pressure while I was away, but nothing that derailed the current rally.

All the market indexes start the week above their 20 and 50 day moving averages.

$INDU,$NYA,$SPX,$USD,$COMPQ,$CRB,$RUT,$GOLD

2017-11-10-US Stock Market Averages

Price and volume action hasn't changed much in the past month or so. Distribution days come and go from the count, which remains slightly elevated. Many leading stocks are still extended, but last weeks selling did knock some back into base building mode.

OEW uptrend signals remain in place as of Thursday's close, although there are signs the recent rally has topped. Tony is facing some health issues of his own, so OEW has been offline since Thursday.


If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro. Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.




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